activescott's Notes

The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 showed that, for a remarkable 19 out of 20 important strategic minerals, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of 70%. Moreover, our analysis shows that this concentration has only intensified in recent years. Reliance on a small number of suppliers increases vulnerability to shocks and disruptions, be it from extreme weather, technical failure or trade disruptions.

This is no longer just a theoretical concern. There has been a proliferation of export controls on key materials and technologies in recent years. New restrictions on rare earth elements and lithium-ion battery supply chains underscore once again the vulnerabilities and risks.

For rare earths used in magnets for various industries – notably neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium – China accounted for around 60% of global mining output in 2024, followed by Myanmar, Australia and the United States. China’s dominance is even greater in the separation and refining stages, representing about 91% of global production, with Malaysia a distant second.

Moreover, China has significantly strengthened its position in the manufacturing of rare earth-containing permanent magnets – magnets that retain their magnetic properties indefinitely without the need for external power. Two decades ago, China accounted for around 50% of the production of sintered permanent magnets commonly used in cars, wind turbines, industrial motors, data centres and defence systems. This share has risen significantly to 94% today, making China the world’s single largest supplier of the component critical to the manufacturing of the most powerful motors that are used for many cutting-edge applications. Such high market concentration leaves global supply chains in strategic sectors – such as energy, automotive, defence and AI data centres – vulnerable to potential disruptions.

In 2024, China exported 58 000 tonnes of rare earth magnets – enough to manufacture components to make millions of cars, industrial motors or aircraft – or to build thousands of strategic military systems, data centres or wind turbines.

is not only rare earth elements that are impacted. On 9 October 2025, China also announced major export controls on lithium-ion battery supply chains, effective from 8 November. The new controls expand on previous measures and cover a much broader range of battery materials, technologies and equipment across multiple stages of the supply chain. They now include battery cells and packs for high-performance applications, cathode precursors, an expanded scope of anode materials, a broader coverage of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials, and battery and material production equipment and technologies.

China currently dominates the midstream and downstream supply chains for batteries globally, with shares of 80% or more in many key areas. In some segments such as precursor cathode materials and LFP cathode materials, China maintains a near monopoly, with shares of 95% or above. This exceptional concentration creates multiple points of vulnerability across the supply chain.2

Looking further ahead, the new controls target some critical chokepoints in global battery supply chains, notably graphite anode material and cathode material precursors for which supply options outside China are extremely limited. If these supplies are disrupted, this could severely restrict the ability of the rest of the world to produce batteries, with potentially significant strategic and economic consequences.

LFP batteries are a case in point, with markets expanding rapidly. They represent half of the global electric car battery market and the majority of the energy storage market. While China currently dominates this segment, efforts are underway to develop LFP battery production outside China. However, new restrictions on LFP cathode materials could impede these initiatives, reinforcing China’s dominance in this technology, with major implications for energy storage deployment.

The Trump administration announced two more payouts Monday for energy companies to walk away from U.S. offshore wind projects under development.

Bluepoint Wind and Golden State Wind have agreed to end their offshore wind leases in exchange for reimbursements totaling nearly $900 million.

Interior said it’s following the model of its recent deal with the French energy company TotalEnergies, which is getting a $1 billion payout to walk away from projects off the coasts of North Carolina and New York. TotalEnergies agreed in March to what’s essentially a refund of its leases, and will invest the money in fossil fuel projects instead.

Bluepoint Wind and Golden State Wind were slated to be major offshore wind projects, each capable of powering more than 1 million homes when complete and helping the states of New Jersey, New York and California meet their clean energy goals. If the projects were to ever move forward, a developer would have to buy new leases. But under the Trump administration, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has rescinded all designated wind energy areas in federal waters.

Bluepoint Wind is a partnership between Ocean Winds and Global Infrastructure Partners. Global Infrastructure Partners, a part of investment giant BlackRock, has committed to invest up to $765 million into a U.S.-based liquefied natural gas facility. Interior said it would cancel the offshore wind lease and reimburse the company for the amount invested in the LNG project.

Golden State Wind is a joint venture by Ocean Winds and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. Under its agreement, Golden State Wind can recover about $120 million in lease fees after the same amount is invested in oil and gas assets, infrastructure or projects along the Gulf Coast, Interior said.

In his second term, Trump has gone all in on fossil fuels, which he says will lower costs for families, increase reliability and help the U.S. maintain global leadership in artificial intelligence.

Hasbara (Hebrew: הַסְבָּרָה) is the public diplomacy of Israel. It includes mass communication, as well as individual interaction with foreign nationals through social and traditional media, and cultural diplomacy. Organizations involved include the IDF Spokesperson's Unit, Prime Minister's Office, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and pro-Israel civil society organizations. Historically, these efforts were openly called "propaganda" by the early Zionists who promoted them, with Theodor Herzl advocating such activities in 1899.[1] The term hasbara was introduced by Nahum Sokolow, literally meaning "explaining".[2] This communicative strategy seeks to justify Israeli state actions and is considered reactive and event-driven.

Israeli officials have emphasized the importance of molding American public opinion to influence U.S. foreign policy favorably toward Israel. For example, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, "In the last 30 years, I appeared innumerable times in the American media and met thousands of American leaders. I developed a certain ability to influence public opinion." Netanyahu said this in the context of the Israeli government's decade-long effort to pressure for military action against Iran. He added that this "is the most important thing: the ability to sway public opinion in the United States against the regime in Iran."[

According to The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, major American Jewish organizations have played a significant role in advancing an Israeli state narrative to the American public. They quote Rabbi Alexander M. Schindler, former chair of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, saying: "The Presidents' Conference and its members have been instruments of official governmental Israeli policy. It was seen as our task to receive directions from government circles and to do our best no matter what to affect the Jewish community." Similarly, they quote Hyman Bookbinder, a high-ranking official of the American Jewish Committee, as saying: "Unless something is terribly pressing, really critical or fundamental, you parrot Israel's line in order to retain American support. As American Jews, we don't go around saying Israel is wrong about its policies."

California’s “Trump Tax Loophole” is a billionaire-friendly tax break that lets the wealthiest commercial property owners avoid paying taxes based on what their properties are actually worth. It traces back to Proposition 13, which was promoted as a way to protect homeowners from being taxed out of their homes when values rise. This law has been exploited to generate massive corporate tax giveaways, including an estimated $200 million windfall at Trump’s 555 California Street building in San Francisco.1 By including commercial and industrial property, the law created a system that billionaire and corporate landowners exploit to lock in artificially low tax bills for decades—even while their buildings skyrocket in value and generate enormous profits.

Requires=

Similar to Wants=, but declares a stronger requirement dependency. Dependencies of this type may also be configured by adding a symlink to a .requires/ directory accompanying the unit file.

If this unit gets activated, the units listed will be activated as well. If one of the other units fails to activate, and an ordering dependency After= on the failing unit is set, this unit will not be started. Besides, with or without specifying After=, this unit will be stopped (or restarted) if one of the other units is explicitly stopped (or restarted).

Often, it is a better choice to use Wants= instead of Requires= in order to achieve a system that is more robust when dealing with failing services.

Note that this dependency type does not imply that the other unit always has to be in active state when this unit is running. Specifically: failing condition checks (such as ConditionPathExists=, ConditionPathIsSymbolicLink=, … — see below) do not cause the start job of a unit with a Requires= dependency on it to fail. Also, some unit types may deactivate on their own (for example, a service process may decide to exit cleanly, or a device may be unplugged by the user), which is not propagated to units having a Requires= dependency. Use the BindsTo= dependency type together with After= to ensure that a unit may never be in active state without a specific other unit also in active state (see below).

Added in version 201.

Free and open source software for video recording and live streaming.

Free and open source software for video recording and live streaming.

With both Hezbollah and Iran damaged but still standing, Trump’s announcement of twin ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon has exposed the principal cheerleader of both conflicts, Netanyahu, to domestic political jeopardy.

Just days before Trump’s Lebanon ceasefire announcement, a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute showed overwhelming support among Jewish Israeli respondents for continuing the conflict even if that led to friction with the US.

The ceasefire with Iran has also proven unpopular within Israel, with two-thirds of Israelis polled by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem opposing the pause in operations.

“I think that, on the one hand, Israelis, Israeli Jews in particular, tend to put both of them [Iran and Lebanon] into the broader basket of ‘all enemies are against us,’” Dahlia Scheindlin, an American Israeli political consultant, pollster, and journalist told Al Jazeera, “We live in a region with a sea of enemies trying to destroy Israel in every possible way. So it becomes part of a wider self-image that Israelis have.”

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his military to "vigorously attack Hezbollah targets" in Lebanon, two days after a ceasefire was extended by three weeks.

Israel continues to occupy a much of southern Lebanon and has been carrying out large-scale demolitions there.

An Israeli strike killed Amal Khalil, who worked for a Lebanese newspaper, and injured freelance photographer Zeinab Faraj. Officials in Lebanon say they were deliberately targeted as they sought shelter in a home after an initial air strike hit the vehicle in front of them, killing two men.

The findings expose how suspected commercial surveillance vendors (CSVs) exploit the global telecom interconnect ecosystem, leverage private operator networks, and conduct covert location tracking operations that can persist undetected for years.

SIM Card Exploitation: One campaign sent a malicious SMS containing hidden SIM card commands to extract location information, attempting to turn the device into a covert tracking beacon.

Our findings highlight a systemic issue at the core of global telecommunications: operator infrastructure designed to enable seamless international connectivity is being leveraged to support covert surveillance operations that are difficult to monitor, attribute, and regulate. Despite repeated public reporting, this activity continues unabated and without consequence.

These vulnerabilities are not the result of software bugs or network misconfigurations; rather, they are inherent to global telecommunications design and business practices. The mobile ecosystem comprises over a thousand operators interconnected through roaming agreements and signalling protocols that prioritize efficiency, service availability, and revenue opportunity over security. As a result, a shadowy marketplace of state-backed and commercial espionage actors has emerged, developing and deploying software platforms that weaponize telecommunication networks for global surveillance.

he root of the security problem lies in the foundational signalling protocols themselves. Designed for a trusted community of mobile operators and legitimate third-party service providers, SS7 protocols lack the basic security mechanisms of IP networks, such as authentication and validation to verify the source of signalling messages, integrity checks to ensure that data has not been altered, and encryption to protect its contents.

While most commercial threat groups focus on device implants, there is strong demand by government agencies for “off-the-shelf” telecom surveillance services that use mobile networks to locate and track users, and intercept communications without hacking a target’s phone. These services are often brokered through intermediaries with direct or brokered access to mobile operator or provider networks, allowing surveillance traffic to blend into legitimate roaming operations.

Since its founding as DCNA, the Finn Hill Neighborhood Alliance has been active in protecting and expanding the neighborhood’s parks, waterways, and tree canopy, and it has promoted land use policies that balance sensible growth with environmental preservation.

Below is a list of frequently asked questions on the Accessibility Conformance Report (ACR) and the Voluntary Product Accessibility Template (VPAT®). This information was adapted from NASA’s Demystifying Section 508: An Industry Guide to Understanding Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act.

have not completed a VPAT®/ACR before. Why am I being required to complete it now? Isn’t the VPAT® voluntary?

The U.S. federal government must buy information and communication technology (ICT) that is accessible per Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act. The government asks industry to submit an Accessibility Conformance Report so that the accessibility of a product may be evaluated. Without the ACR, the government may not proceed with the purchase unless there is a special use case exception that the government – never industry – may claim in which the ACR will not be required. Industry completes the ACR so that their product may be considered for purchase.

The ITI Voluntary Product Accessibility Template (ITI VPAT®) is a free template that translates accessibility requirements and standards (e.g., in Section 508 and other legal frameworks) into actionable testing criteria for products and services. Users should test their products and services against each section of the VPAT and use the template to document results. Once completed, the VPAT® with documented testing results is referred to as an Accessibility Conformance Report (ACR) that details the accessible features of the tested product or service.

The Accessibility Conformance Report (ACR), based on a completed ITI VPAT®, is the leading global reporting format for assisting buyers and sellers in identifying information and communications technology (ICT) products and services with accessibility features. The VPAT includes the leading ICT accessibility standards: Section 508 (U.S.), EN 301 549 (EU), and W3C/WAI WCAG.

A Voluntary Product Accessibility Template (VPAT) is a template containing information regarding how an Information and communications technology (ICT) product or service conforms with Section 508 of the United States Rehabilitation Act of 1973, as amended (29 U.S.C. § 794 (d)). Section 508 provides guidelines for rendering ICT accessible to, and therefore usable by, people with disabilities. The VPAT was originally designed as a tool for vendors to document product compliance to Section 508 and facilitate government market research on ICT with accessible features. Many people started to call the completed document a "VPAT" but the wider procurement community would prefer to call it a product Accessibility Conformance Report, or ACR. The distinction is that the VPAT is the incomplete form, and the ACR is the completed report using the VPAT template.

The current VPAT has expanded to include the U.S. Revised Section 508, European EN 301 549, and WCAG standards which are required by regulations in many jurisdictions.

Opus 4.7 takes instructions more literally than any previous Claude model. Anthropic's own words: "substantially better adherence" and "takes instructions more literally than predecessors." They even recommend retuning existing prompts.

I'll say it plainly: if your prompts have sloppy instructions that Opus 4.6 gracefully ignored or interpreted charitably, Opus 4.7 will follow them to the letter. And you might not like the result.

Example: I had a system prompt that said "always respond in JSON format." With Opus 4.6, it would still give me a natural language preamble before the JSON when it felt the user needed context. Opus 4.7? Pure JSON. Every time. No exceptions. Even when a clarifying question would've been more helpful.

The fix: Be precise about what you actually want. If you mean "respond in JSON format unless the user's question requires clarification," say that. The model won't guess your intent anymore — it'll do what you told it.

This is actually a good thing for production systems. Predictability over cleverness. But you'll need to audit your prompts.

and that misalignment risk remains very low (though higher than for pre-Mythos Preview models).

Autonomy threat model 1 is applicable to Claude Opus 4.7, as it is to some of our previous AI models. Claude Opus 4.7 is less capable than Claude Mythos Preview on our autonomy-relevant evaluations, and our alignment assessment indicates it has alignment properties broadly similar to those of Claude Opus 4.6, which are not particularly concerning with respect to the pathways identified for this threat model. We therefore do not believe Claude Opus 4.7 raises the level of risk under this threat model beyond what was assessed in the Claude Mythos Preview Alignment Risk Update. Unlike Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Opus 4.7 is being released for general access, which brings additional risk pathways into scope. Rather than publishing a separate risk report, we provide an updated overall risk assessment for this threat model in Section 2.4 of this system card

Evaluation awareness concerns substantially limit the interpretation of these results. Given high rates of prompted evaluation awareness, models can likely correctly represent our evaluations as such without verbalisation. It is difficult to know whether models act on such representations, but this means that models may behave differently than they would when presented with real-world opportunities to compromise research. The reported rate of zero research compromise behaviour should therefore be interpreted cautiously.

Users have two solutions for avoiding this fatigue: a built-in sandbox where tools are isolated to prevent dangerous actions, or the --dangerously-skip-permissions flag that disables all permission prompts and lets Claude act freely, which is unsafe in most situations. Figure 1 lays out the tradeoff space. Sandboxing is safe but high-maintenance: each new capability needs configuring, and anything requiring network or host access breaks isolation.

Auto mode uses two layers of defense: one for what Claude reads, one for what Claude does.

a server-side prompt-injection probe scans tool outputs:

At the input layer, a server-side prompt-injection probe scans tool outputs (file reads, web fetches, shell output, external tool responses) before they enter the agent's context. When content looks like an attempt to hijack behavior, the probe adds a warning to the agent's context before the result is passed along—telling the agent to treat this content as suspect and anchor on what the user actually asked for.

At the output layer, the transcript classifier (running on Sonnet 4.6) evaluates each action against a set of decision criteria before it executes, acting as a substitute for a human approver. The classifier runs in two stages: a fast single-token filter (deciding ‘yes’ to block or ‘no’ to allow), followed by chain-of-thought reasoning only if the first filter flags the transcript. Because most actions clear the first stage, reasoning tokens are spent only where needed. The classifier sees only user messages and the agent's tool calls; we strip out Claude's own messages and tool outputs, making it reasoning-blind by design.

So... Claude Code's auto mode lets through 17% of dangerous real world actions. From the article:

False-negative rate (FNR) is the fraction of dangerous actions the classifier lets through... The 17% false-negative rate on real overeager actions is the honest number. The agent was trying to solve the user's problem and tried to execute a dangerous command past what was authorized.

I don't think comparing it to --dangerously-skip-permissions is intellectually honest since Claude Code now prompts you to make Auto Mode your default mode now, while --dangerously-skip-permissions was basically a hidden feature. I don't know anyone else that I work with who even knew about it.

Whether 17% is acceptable depends on what you're comparing against. If you are running --dangerously-skip-permissions, this is a substantial improvement. If you are manually approving every action carefully, it's arguably a regression—you're trading your own judgment for a classifier that will sometimes make a mistake. Auto mode is meant for the first group, and for tasks where the second group's approval overhead isn't worth the marginal safety. It is not a drop-in replacement for careful human review on high-stakes infrastructure.

At the input layer, a server-side prompt-injection probe scans tool outputs (file reads, web fetches, shell output, external tool responses) before they enter the agent's context. When content looks like an attempt to hijack behavior, the probe adds a warning to the agent's context before the result is passed along—telling the agent to treat this content as suspect and anchor on what the user actually asked for.

Israel has granted a perpetrator of war crimes in Gaza the honor of lighting a ceremonial torch on Independence Day. By choosing Rabbi Avraham Zarbiv to represent “the spirit of the nation,” Israel is making genocide part of its official national ethos.

“There’s nothing for them to go back to in Rafah and Jabalya… Tens of thousands of families have no documents, childhood photos, ID cards, homes. Nothing.” This boast was made by Rabbi Avraham Zarbiv, an Israeli Rabbi who perpetrated war crimes who has been chosen to light a torch at Israel’s Independence Day ceremony, today, April 21. This is one of the highest accolades in the country, granted to “exemplary citizens” who represent “the spirit of the nation.”

Rabbi Zarbiv served about 500 days as a military reservist in Gaza over the last two and a half years. As a bulldozer operator during the genocide, he carried out war crimes of which he has openly boasted in videos he filmed, media interviews and public talks.

Bestowing one of the highest civilian honors in Israel on a citizen who committed war crimes illustrates how deeply the dehumanization of Palestinians has taken root in the Israeli mainstream. It is yet another terrifying signal that genocide has officially become part of the national ethos. Rabbi Avraham Zarbiv is a regional rabbinical court judge for the settlement of Ariel, and head the pre-military academy in the settlement of Beit El that educates hundreds of Israeli youth. Choosing him as an “exemplary citizen” represents a state-level endorsement of the complete de-humanization of Palestinians, systematic destruction of Palestinian life and the governing logic of annihilation and ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Zarbiv is not ashamed of his actions, neither, clearly is the State of Israel. We’vecompiled some documentation here to mark the occasion.

An extremist rabbi known for razing civilian homes in Gaza will light a torch at Israel’s independence day celebration on Tuesday, a role human rights campaigners said marked the embrace of genocide as the official “spirit of the nation”.

The footage spread so widely on social media that his name entered the lexicon of Hebrew slang. “To Zarbiv” now means to destroy, a neologism that the 54-year-old has embraced, making it the title of a lecture earlier this year.

Zarbiv’s selection for the ceremony marks an official endorsement of the dehumanisation of Palestinians and systematic destruction of Palestinian life, according to the rights group B’tselem. It said: “This selection sends a clear message to the citizens of Israel and the entire world – in Israel, genocide, ethnic cleansing and war crimes are the ‘spirit of the nation’.”