activescott's Notes

In the summer of 2025, Congressional Republicans passed a reconciliation bill providing $170.7 billion dollars to the Department of Homeland Security for immigration enforcement related activities. According to Office of Management and Budget, of the $75 billion specifically for ICE, $63 billion remains unspent while of the $65 billion for CBP, $37 billion remains unspent.

Or, to put it another way, ICE and CBP, despite receiving no annual appropriations this year, still have $100 billion dollars in funding to spend.

So, obviously, what Congress needs to do this year is appropriate still more money to ICE and CBP (another $70 billion to ICE and CBP together through 2029). Last night, in a 52-47 vote, that’s just what the Senate did.

A UN report published in March 2025 found evidence of the “systematic” use of sexual, reproductive and other forms of gender-based violence by Israel since October 7, 2023. In May, Israel was added to the UN “blacklist of sexual violence in conflict zones”. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Israeli rights group B’Tselem and the PCHR have described the pervasive culture of sexual violence within Israeli forces, especially among those charged with overseeing Palestinian prisoners. Many were arrested and held without charge under Israel’s system of administrative detention.

No soldiers or guards have been convicted of sexual abuse of Palestinians. Israel detained 10 security officers after a video of the rape of a prisoner was leaked from the Sde Teiman detention camp in the Negev desert in July 2024. But gangs of right-wing protesters, including legislators, attempted to storm the facility where the guards were being held in a bid to free them.

Last July, Israel dropped all charges against the guards. The female officer who allegedly leaked the video of the attack, Major-General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi, was subsequently arrested. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu termed her “crime” – sharing footage of the rape by Israeli soldiers – as the “most severe public relations attack” on the country since its founding.

Asked in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in July 2024 whether it was ever legitimate to rape a prisoner, Hanoch Milwidsky, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, shouted: “Yes.”

“If he is a Nukhba [Hamas fighter], everything is legitimate to do, everything.”

Israeli President Isaac Herzog had no issue with “unequivocally” blaming all Palestinians for the Hamas-led attack on October 7, telling reporters: “It is an entire nation out there that is responsible. It’s not true [that] this rhetoric about civilians not [being] aware, not involved. It’s absolutely not true.”

former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel was fighting what he called “human animals” and ordered a “complete siege” on the men, women and children there. Others, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have been consistent offenders, routinely referring to Palestinians as terrorists or framing large segments of Palestinian society in broadly criminal or extremist terms, particularly in relation to Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to $3.1 trillion in 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and increases to 6.7 percent in 2036. Deficits averaged 3.8 percent of GDP over the last 50 years (see Chapter 1).

Debt held by the public rises from 101 percent of GDP in 2026 to 120 percent in 2036, well above the previous record of 106 percent just after World War II.

Outlays are large by historical standards—and growing. They total 23.3 percent of GDP in 2026, exceeding their 50-year average of 21.2 percent. After being adjusted for shifts in the timing of certain payments, outlays remain at about that level through 2028 but then grow steadily, boosted by rising spending on mandatory programs and increasing net interest costs. Outlays in 2036 are 24.4 percent of GDP (see Chapter 3).

the cumulative deficit over the 2026–2035 period is $1.4 trillion (or 6 percent) greater (see Chapter 5). Three major policy developments contribute to those changes: The 2025 reconciliation act (see Appendix A) increased deficits by an estimated $4.7 trillion; higher tariffs reduced deficits by an estimated $3.0 trillion; and administrative actions related to immigration increased deficits by an estimated $0.5 trillion.

The law’s most significant tax changes were those that extended certain provisions of the 2017 tax act (P.L. 115-97) that had expired or were scheduled to expire after 2025. The reconciliation act lowered statutory tax rates and changed the amount of individual income subject to tax, thus reducing individual income tax liabilities for most households and for pass-through businesses (that is, businesses for which income is taxed under the individual income tax system). It also accelerated deductions for business investment and thus reduced effective marginal tax rates on that investment. (The effective marginal tax rate measures the tax burden on returns from a marginal investment—that is, one that is expected to earn just enough, after taxes, to attract investors.) The reconciliation act modified eligibility and financing for Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and altered the terms of federal student loans, reducing federal spending on those programs. It also provided additional funding for defense, homeland security, and immigration-related activities.

The 2025 reconciliation act is estimated to increase total deficits over the 2025–2034 period by $4.2 trillion relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline projections (see Table A-1).

To account for the effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, CBO increased its estimate of total deficits over the 2025–2034 period by $4.2 trillion relative to the agency’s January 2025 baseline projections (see Table A-1). That amount reflects CBO and JCT’s conventional estimate of the law’s effects on primary deficits (which exclude net outlays for interest) as well as effects of increased net outlays for interest and of budgetary feedback from macroeconomic changes. In total, the reconciliation act increases CBO’s estimate of federal debt as a percentage of GDP in 2034 by 9.0 percentage points, from 117.1 percent of GDP to 126.0 percent.

Argo CD wraps the loop in an application-centric abstraction with a dashboard; Flux exposes the loop as a set of granular Kubernetes custom resources.

a Washington Post analysis found that Musk has recently significantly increased his rate of online posts about race and his concerns about perceived threats to Whiteness or what he views as calls for a “genocide” against White people.

In September, Musk posted on X to agree with a screenshot posted by another user that said White people faced a choice between being “conquered, enslaved, raped and genocided while being called ‘racist’” or reclaiming “our nations and our dignity while being called ‘racist.’” “Yes,” Musk replied.

In one of Musk’s recent posts on X about race the billionaire appeared to suggest that White people should be considered Indigenous to the United States. “It certainly makes no sense that everyone except Europeans can have a homeland,” he wrote. “It’s absolutely ridiculous when you think about it. Where did White people come from??”

Asked how long one’s ancestors must have been somewhere for them be considered Indigenous, Musk replied: “250 years sounds like plenty to me.”

Wow.

Murderous migrants beheading innocent people in their home town is what’s making people angry, not “social media”!

Buried deep inside a 192-page intelligence authorization bill is Section 622, titled “United States-Israel Intelligence Sharing Enhancement.” It would require the president, acting through the director of national intelligence and as necessary the secretary of defense, to “expand and enhance intelligence sharing with the Government of Israel” on a list of subjects that encompasses almost every topic of intelligence interest in the Middle East.

The bill, put forward by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, would prohibit any suspension, reduction, or limitation of such sharing “except on the basis of a specific and identifiable national security concern determined by the President.” Any such exception would require a report to Congress within fifteen days detailing not only the reason for the change but also the categories of information involved. The same report would require an assessment of the anticipated impact on regional security and various other matters.

This proposal is one of several recent moves by those in Washington who carry the Israeli government’s water to keep the United States tied to Israel despite plummeting support for the country among the American public. The most salient form of U.S. support to Israel has been more than $300 billion in economic and especially military assistance.

The mandating of intelligence sharing carries this strategy further by moving it into the shadowy world of relations between intelligence agencies. That world is even farther removed from public visibility and accountability than the defense integration, and even less likely to stimulate thoughts about American taxpayers’ money going to a foreign country. So far, Section 622 of the intelligence bill has received less attention than Section 224 of the defense bill.

In intelligence, Israel is more of an adversary than an ally. Being an adversary in intelligence means indulging in the hostile act of espionage. Israel has a long record of conducting that type of hostile act against the United States. The best-known case involves the spy Jonathan Pollard, who stole such an overwhelming volume of U.S. secrets that then-Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger stated to the court that sentenced Pollard that it was difficult “ to conceive of a greater harm to national security than that caused by the defendant in view of the breadth, the critical importance to the U.S., and the high sensitivity of the information he sold to Israel.”

When Pollard completed his prison sentence and parole in 2020, he was given a hero's welcome, led by Netanyahu himself, on his arrival at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel.

The Israeli espionage threat to the United States has only intensified. Last week, NBC News reported that the Defense Intelligence Agency raised the threat level for such espionage, evidently a reflection mostly of U.S.-Israeli differences over the Iran war. The New York Times quotes an official saying that Israeli intelligence operations aimed at senior U.S. officials during the second Trump administration have become so aggressive as to be “unhinged.”

Any sensitive information, including intelligence secrets, shared with Israel entails a high risk of Israel passing it to other countries, including U.S. adversaries. Israel has a long record of that, too

Israel’s sharing of U.S.-origin military technology with China has been an issue.

Israel has started more wars and attacked more nations than any other country in the Middle East. In recent years it has inflicted more death and destruction on civilians through military operations than any other Middle Eastern state. It uses violence to seek regional hegemony and destroy Palestinian nationhood in ways that are inconsistent with U.S. interests.

After being the principal influence on President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the war, Netanyahu’s government has been sabotaging efforts to end it. It currently is doing so mainly with relentless attacks in Lebanon that have killed thousands and displaced over a million people. The divergence of objectives was reflected in an expletive-laden phone call last week between Trump and Netanyahu that was mainly about those attacks.

But new research suggests another culprit may be doing more of the damage: remote work.  “Remote work can explain 64% of the increase in unemployment for all young college graduates between 2017-19 and 2022-24,” researchers wrote in a blog post published Monday by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Separately, a paper by economists Peter John Lambert and Yannick Schindler of the London School of Economics posted last month reached a similar conclusion. The authors found that work-from-home exposure was a stronger predictor of the pullback in early-career hiring than exposure to artificial intelligence, at least so far.

“Junior workers rely heavily on training, mentoring, supervision, informal feedback and internal networks,” Schindler said, “which are all things where in-person contact is really important.”

people in their 20s are generally eager to work in an office at least part time. The same is true for many workers older than 50, who tend to be more senior, are less likely to have young children at home, and whose jobs often involve more meetings and supervising.   “It’s the people in the middle of those ages — the ones who have families, who don’t need day-to-day mentoring because they’re already well on their career path,” he told Straight Arrow, “who want the flexibility of working from home.”

Judge Leo Sorokin decided those fees violated the Constitution and the Administrative Procedure Act. Twenty states filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the fees. The judge agreed with the states that the fee is a tax, which the president cannot levy on his own. “The tax can only be levied by Congress, and so he crossed the line when he entered into this area of charging $100,000 for a particular type of visa,” Hing said.

The Trump administration has already said they plan to appeal this ruling. The district court is the lowest-level court in the federal system, with the next stop likely to be the court of appeals.

In the meantime, companies are not required to pay the fee.

As for the companies that have already paid the fee, they will likely seek reimbursement from the government. However, any refunds will likely have to wait until the appeals process is completed, which will take some time.

It comes after Trump ordered U.S. strikes in response to the downing of an American military helicopter.

Iran has not claimed responsibility for shooting down the American helicopter. Tehran accused the U.S. of acting under a “false pretext” and warned that any further U.S. attacks would be met with what it called “devastating and more wide-ranging strikes.” Despite the latest exchange, Trump has maintained that efforts to reach a peace agreement remain on track.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iranian leaders have "taken too long to negotiate a deal". US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran had been given a chance to make a deal but had not taken it, adding that bombs would be "dropping on key facilities" in the country. The US president added that Iran would be attacked again if no peace deal was secured.

As part of the August deal, Alt5 acquired $1.5 billion worth of crypto tokens from World Liberty Financial, the crypto company co-founded by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., among others, in 2024. The president and undisclosed members of his family were entitled to roughly $500 million in proceeds from the crypto sale, according to disclosures by World Liberty Financial.

Alt5 closed at $8.97 on Aug. 8, the last trading day before the World Liberty deal was announced. Since then, AI Financial ’s stock — originally trading under the ticker ALTS, now AIFC — fell to 66 cents a share at the June 8 close, a 93% loss, according to FactSet data.

World Liberty was founded in 2024 as a private company by Eric, Donald Jr., and Barron Trump, sons of the president; Zach and Alex Witkoff, sons of Trump Middle East negotiator Steve Witkoff; and business partners Zak Folkman and Chase Herro, according to a company document. Disclosures on World Liberty’s website in early June show that “approximately 38% of the equity interests” in World Liberty’s parent company are owned by “an entity affiliated with Donald J. Trump and certain of his family members.”

Alt5 announced the World Liberty deal on Aug. 11. It had two parts. Alt5 traded shares and stock warrants in itself to World Liberty in exchange for $750 million worth of WLFI tokens, and Alt5 sold $750 million in stock to investors at $7.50 a share. The $750 million in proceeds, minus some fees, was given to World Liberty in exchange for WLFI tokens. All told, Alt5 received nearly 7.3 billion WLFI tokens, which it initially valued at about $1.5 billion. Zach Witkoff, World Liberty’s CEO, became chair of Alt5′s board.

The Trump family is entitled to 75% of the proceeds from World Liberty’s crypto token sales, according to disclosures made in a document World Liberty published in 2024 describing its token offering, and repeated in fine print at the bottom of its website. That would put the Trump family’s direct gains from the August Alt5 transaction at roughly $500 million after fees and other expenses.

Some of these issues, such as the court filing and auditor issue, should have been revealed to investors more swiftly, Canter said. “I started my ethics career at the SEC, and I think they would have started investigating this for just one or two of these failures to disclose,” Canter said.

One potential wrinkle in the investigative process, Canter said, is the Trump family’s recent “anti-weaponization” settlement with the Internal Revenue Service. Under the settlement, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche issued an order releasing Trump from ongoing audits. The settlement’s language is vague and is written in a way that could be interpreted to apply to regulators’ potential investigations of companies related to the Trump family, such as AI Financial, Canter said.

rtk filters and compresses command outputs before they reach your LLM context. Single Rust binary, 100+ supported commands, <10ms overhead.

A Claude Code skill/plugin that makes agent talk like caveman — cuts ~75% of output tokens, keeps full technical accuracy. Brain still big. Mouth small.

git clone https://github.com/JuliusBrussee/caveman.git
cd caveman

node bin/install.js --only claude --minimal

Key Findings

An LLM agent executed the post-compromise actions in real time rather than running a pre-built playbook. This is the first AI-agent-driven intrusion the Sysdig TRT has captured. The full attack chain — marimo notebook compromise to internal Postgres database dump — ran end-to-end in under one hour. The SSH bastion phase exfiltrated the Postgres schema and full contents of an internal database in less than two minutes. Cloudflare Workers were used as a per-request egress pool: 12 cloud API calls fanned across eleven distinct IPs in 22 seconds, defeating per-source-IP detection.

On March 21, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that “all houses and villages near the Lebanese border will be destroyed, in accordance with the model used in Rafah and Beit Hanoun in Gaza.” That model, the systematic demolition of thousands of homes, including after the end of active hostilities and without discernible military justification, is being carried out using the D9 Armoured Bulldozer, manufactured by Caterpillar Inc. Within the Occupied Palestinian territories, the Palestinian population lives under military law, and the Israeli military utilizes Regulation 119, Defense (Emergency) Regulations (1945) which allows military commanders to order the demolition of any home or structure utilized by a convicted or suspected terrorist.

In 2002, B’tselem documented IDF D9s destroying 60 homes in the Rafah refugee camp, displacing over 600 Palestinians five years before Hamas took power.

Since October 2024, IDF D9 bulldozers, in controlled demolition, demolished 8,218 homes in Gaza, many after ceasefires and without military rationale.

A 2026 UN report documented the destruction as systematic, occurring in neighborhoods cleared of combatants and posing no ongoing military threat.

A New York Times report detailed 50 social media accounts of Israeli soldiers demolishing houses, schools and other civilian buildings.

September 2024: West Bank Raid

The IDF deployed D9s as collective punishment following the October 7th, 2023 attacks. In the West Bank IDF raids caused an estimated $135 million in damages: 20km of water, sewage, electricity, and communication networks were destroyed; 70% of the road network was demolished along with 40 residential buildings and 10 businesses being damaged.

Following the 2024 ceasefire in Lebanon, IDF D9s demolished entire villages and leveled cemeteries, obliterating headstones and burial markers.

The IDF demolished or heavily damaged at least 850 structures across refugee camps of Nur Shams, Jenin, and Tulkarem continuing acts of collective punishment. Resulting in the displacement of some 40,000 people in the largest mass displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank since the Israeli occupation began in 1967.

In November, it was reported that the Biden administration was holding up the sale of the D9 bulldozers due to the IDF’s use of them to raze homes in Gaza. The IDF has said the homes were used by Hamas and accuses the terror group of using civilians as human shields.

US President Donald Trump, upon entering office, walked back on several measures by the previous administration meant to curb arms sales to Israel.

Since the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, the Defense Ministry says, 870 transport planes and 144 ships have delivered more than 100,000 tons of armaments and military equipment to Israel, mostly from the US.

For 2026, across 312 insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, this analysis shows a median proposed premium increase of 18%, which is about 11 percentage points higher than last year. This is the largest rate change insurers have requested since 2018, the last time that policy uncertainty contributed to sharp premium increases.

key factor driving costs in 2026. Insurers cite increasing cost and utilization of high-priced drugs as well as general market factors, such as increasing labor costs and inflation, as contributing to premium increases.

In addition to rising healthcare costs, the majority of insurers are also taking into account the potential expiration of enhanced premium tax credits in their premium rate increases for the next year. The expiration of enhanced tax credits will lead to out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees increasing by an average of more than 75%, with insurers expecting healthier enrollees to drop coverage. That, in turn, increases underlying premiums. Other federal policy changes, like the implementation of tariffs and the ACA Marketplace Integrity and Affordability rule were also discussed, though to a lesser extent.