Why Bitcoin Surged to $80,000, and What May Come Next | Morningstar

The immediate catalyst was the US Treasury’s decision to at least double its purchases of government bonds with longer maturities, from $2 billion to $4 billion a month with the aim of reducing longer-term Treasury yields, which have surged recently to highs last seen in 2007.

Bitcoin reacted almost immediately, rising nearly 6% on Aug. 19 before extending its gains. According to André Dragosch, head of research Europe at Bitwise, the Treasury announcement was the “major macro catalyst,” signaling a greater willingness to ease fiscal policy and contributing to a weaker US dollar.

“There are several drivers behind the recovery in bitcoin over the past week,” says Macellari, pointing to the recent White House crypto summit and potentially positive momentum on the Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act under consideration by the US Senate. “But the most significant driver is the debasement trade narrative coming back into the spotlight.”

Once prices started moving higher, leveraged short positions, which use borrowing to bet on the price weakness of bitcoin, were forced to close. According to Dragosch, last week there was a record amount of liquidated short positions, which added another layer of buying pressure, creating a classic “short squeeze”.

But the level of $80,000 remains the key test. CoinShares’ Butterfill expects bitcoin to remain within its current range unless the Federal Reserve provides clearer confirmation that the risk of further rate rises has disappeared, which “could provide the catalyst for a stable bitcoin breakout above the $80,000 threshold.”