Costs from Trump's tariffs paid almost entirely by US consumers

In research released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a group of analysts and economists found that in 2025, the average tariff rate on imported goods rose to 13% from just 2.6% at the start of the year. The New York Fed found that 90% of the cost of increased tariffs, which Trump imposed on goods from Mexico, China, Canada and the European Union, was paid for by companies and often passed on to shoppers. "US firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025."

The reaction from exporters in 2025 was essentially the same in 2018, when Trump imposed certain tariffs during his first term in office – the cost of goods for consumers rose, with little other economic impact recorded, the New York Fed said at the time.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an independent research firm in Germany, said in a report last month that it had found "near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices." Kiel researchers analysed 25 million transactions and found that in exporting countries like Brazil and India, the price of goods from those countries did not decline. "Trade volumes collapsed instead," the Kiel report said, meaning exporters preferred to cut the amount of goods being shipped into the US rather than lower prices.

The National Bureau of Economic Research also found that the pass-through of tariffs was "almost 100%", meaning the US is paying for the increase in prices, not exporting countries.

Similarly, the Tax Foundation, a Washington DC-based think tank focused on US tax policy, found that increased tariffs on goods in 2025 increased costs for every American household. Defining tariffs as a new tax on consumers, the Tax Foundation said the 2025 increases cost the average household $1,000 (£734.30). In 2026, tariffs will cost the same household $1,300. The Tax Foundation said even the "effective" tariff rate, an average rate that takes into account people buying fewer goods in response to increased prices, is now 9.9%, making it the "the highest average rate since 1946". With such impacts on people, the Tax Foundation said any economic benefits of tax cuts included in Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will be offset entirely.